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Kentucky Derby 2012: Horses, Post Positions, Odds and Picks

The 138th Kentucky Derby takes place Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville.

I stopped by restaurant on Huntington Drive one day last week to have a drink with my friend Dave Naftzerger. That drink hit the spot, so I told my bartender friend, Cynthia Naanough, "I'll Have Another."

Since Naanough is , I left the restaurant having decided on my Kentucky Derby picks.

I'm going with winner I'll Have Another to win with favored Bodemeister, who Smith will ride, to finish second in Saturday's race at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.

If I'm right, the exacta — a wager in which you have to pick the first two finishers in order — should pay pretty well. The odds on I'll Have Another are 12-1 and the odds on Bodemeister are 4-1.

I might box my exacta, meaning doubling my bet so that it will also pay if Bodemeister wins and I'll Have Another finishes second. The problem with that, though, is that the exacta will pay much less if the favored Bodemeister wins.

There's a reason I like my hunch bet involving Smith and a girl he is dating. For , which was also run at Churchill Downs, my hunch bet was a horse ridden by Smith and one ridden by his former fiancee Chantal Sutherland. Those horses finished first and second and I went home a happy camper.

Jon White, Santa Anita's oddsmaker, picked I'll Have Another as his best play for the HorsePlayer Magazine. But he had Bodemeister as his ninth-best play because of the odds. Bodemeister, trained by , was made the Ketnucky Derby favorite after winning the recent Arkansas Derby by nine lengths.

Another contender in the field with Santa Anita connections is Creative Cause, who lost by a nose to I'll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby.

Baffert has another entry in the legendary race, Liaison, who will start on the outside in post position No. 20 and is a 50-1 longshot. Another 50-1 shot is Optimizer, trained by former Arcadia resident D. Wayne Lukas.

Jockeys in the race with local connections, besides Smith, include Kent Desormeaux (Dullahan, 6-1), Joel Rosario (Creative Cause, 12-1), Rafael Bejarano (El Padrino, 20-1), Corey Nakatani (Sabercat, 30-1) and Martin Garcia (Liaison, 50-1).

 

Number Name Trainer Jockey   Current Odds  1 Daddy Long Legs Aidan O'Brien Colm O'Donghue 30-1  2 Optimizer D. Wayne Lukas Jon Court 50-1  3 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne Calvin Borel 15-1  4 Union Rags Michael Matz Julien Leparoux 9-2  5 Dullahan Dale Romans Kent Desormeaux 8-1  6 Bodemeister Bob Baffert Mike Smith 4-1  7 Rousing Serman Jerry Hollendorfer Jose Lezcano 50-1  8 Creative Cause Mike Harrington Joel Rosario 12-1  9 Trinniberg Bisnath Parboo Willie Martinez 50-1 10 Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen Garret Gomez 15-1 11 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin Rajiv Maragh 15-1 12 Prospective Mark Casse Luis Contreras 30-1 13 Went the Day Well Graham Motion Johnny Velasquez 20-1 14 Hansen Mike Maker Ramon Dominquez 10-1 15 Gemologist Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano 6-1 16 El Padrino Todd Pletcher Rafael Bejarano 20-1 17 Done Talking Hamilton Smith Sheldon Russell 50-1 18 Sabercat Steve Asmussen Corey Nakatani 30-1 19 I'll Have Another Doug O'Neill Mario Gutierrez 12-1 20 Liaison Bob Baffert Martin Garcia 50-1

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rubberband May 20, 2013 at 07:21 am
Figure cost of having carnival in town. (Were we at the same carnival? Been here all my life...toRead More test our bravery every year my father and I would ride on the Zipper. We deserve medals. Also, keep your girls away from the carny workers..shiver!) Figure cost of having police force block off and guard streets and carnival perimeter. Just to have a small parade is expensive with regards to cost. Figure cost of vendor permits, paperwork, city hall staff, and of course the city employees who must set everything up. Go peek at our budget, what happens to it, and people with "good intentions and/or loud angry opinions" who then don't show to do what they said they'd do. I believe that for some time morale has been low, and trust is like thin ice underfoot. We need some humor, reliability, and energy in our city gov't, and with some action and incentive for Monrovians to show up, we will rise again. Enough fighting and snipping in council meetings, more forgiveness and FUN go get it done attitudes. People want to help and participate, let's make it possible for them to do so. Dunk tank needs dunkees for next year. Anyone you'd like to dunk?
Ellen Zunino May 19, 2013 at 01:37 pm
I kind of lost interest when, along with the Lion's barbecue, the carnival disappeared but thereRead More were always people I knew in the parade so I kept the date. Now that the parade is gone, it's just another festival day in town. Times change and this kind of under-stated event is what people want. The old Monrovia Days used to be a day we could all get together and have fun. Now, people are too busy with their own lives and "community" doesn't mean what it once did.
rubberband May 19, 2013 at 01:09 pm
Interesting. There was one person who decided that letting Monrovia Day slide with nothing doneRead More wasn't gonna play. BY HERSELF and her family and friends planned all of it and set everything up. That person was Keely Milliken. It was astounding how much got done, and without financial support or the usual cast of players to do anything. There were many pitfalls, permits that needed approval and what not...Perhaps if you voiced your displeasure to the City Council and volunteered your personal money and weeks of planning and organizing you'd feel a lot better about it. I can say with absolute conviction that Keely should hold her head high, and I was glad to be a part of it. With almost no money, the people that volunteered their time and efforts are not ashamed, but rather glad that at last minute a albeit mellower version, something nice was created. Sometimes being able to apologize is the biggest most wonderful quality a human can have. I am wrong, often, but not on this one. Great job Keely and family/friends. Thank you for all the hard work.
rubberband May 20, 2013 at 07:38 am
Who was that face painter? She was really good with the kids, even the wiggly ones. She also wasRead More giving away little handmaid mermaids. Some of the stuff at the celebration was cool. I think next year the city council should be the dunkees for the dunk booth.
Mike Day May 17, 2013 at 09:56 pm
Thanks for the compliments. mor video to follow
Buzlightyear aka marty May 17, 2013 at 07:37 pm
Yeah, it's cute...... For now......
Ellen Zunino May 17, 2013 at 01:02 pm
Cool presentation. Many of us have had our own encounters and all of us have seen numerous photosRead More and videos so your creative approach freshened it up for us.
Dan Crandell May 16, 2013 at 09:28 pm
A California city will never prevail in a lawsuit against the STATE. All CA. cities must merge toRead More sue in mass under Federal RICO laws while we still have Federal laws. Filing alone at the State level is useless. Wake up people.