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Kentucky Derby 2012: Horses, Post Positions, Odds and Picks

The 138th Kentucky Derby takes place Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville.

I stopped by restaurant on Huntington Drive one day last week to have a drink with my friend Dave Naftzerger. That drink hit the spot, so I told my bartender friend, Cynthia Naanough, "I'll Have Another."

Since Naanough is , I left the restaurant having decided on my Kentucky Derby picks.

I'm going with winner I'll Have Another to win with favored Bodemeister, who Smith will ride, to finish second in Saturday's race at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.

If I'm right, the exacta — a wager in which you have to pick the first two finishers in order — should pay pretty well. The odds on I'll Have Another are 12-1 and the odds on Bodemeister are 4-1.

I might box my exacta, meaning doubling my bet so that it will also pay if Bodemeister wins and I'll Have Another finishes second. The problem with that, though, is that the exacta will pay much less if the favored Bodemeister wins.

There's a reason I like my hunch bet involving Smith and a girl he is dating. For , which was also run at Churchill Downs, my hunch bet was a horse ridden by Smith and one ridden by his former fiancee Chantal Sutherland. Those horses finished first and second and I went home a happy camper.

Jon White, Santa Anita's oddsmaker, picked I'll Have Another as his best play for the HorsePlayer Magazine. But he had Bodemeister as his ninth-best play because of the odds. Bodemeister, trained by , was made the Ketnucky Derby favorite after winning the recent Arkansas Derby by nine lengths.

Another contender in the field with Santa Anita connections is Creative Cause, who lost by a nose to I'll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby.

Baffert has another entry in the legendary race, Liaison, who will start on the outside in post position No. 20 and is a 50-1 longshot. Another 50-1 shot is Optimizer, trained by former Arcadia resident D. Wayne Lukas.

Jockeys in the race with local connections, besides Smith, include Kent Desormeaux (Dullahan, 6-1), Joel Rosario (Creative Cause, 12-1), Rafael Bejarano (El Padrino, 20-1), Corey Nakatani (Sabercat, 30-1) and Martin Garcia (Liaison, 50-1).

 

Number Name Trainer Jockey   Current Odds  1 Daddy Long Legs Aidan O'Brien Colm O'Donghue 30-1  2 Optimizer D. Wayne Lukas Jon Court 50-1  3 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne Calvin Borel 15-1  4 Union Rags Michael Matz Julien Leparoux 9-2  5 Dullahan Dale Romans Kent Desormeaux 8-1  6 Bodemeister Bob Baffert Mike Smith 4-1  7 Rousing Serman Jerry Hollendorfer Jose Lezcano 50-1  8 Creative Cause Mike Harrington Joel Rosario 12-1  9 Trinniberg Bisnath Parboo Willie Martinez 50-1 10 Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen Garret Gomez 15-1 11 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin Rajiv Maragh 15-1 12 Prospective Mark Casse Luis Contreras 30-1 13 Went the Day Well Graham Motion Johnny Velasquez 20-1 14 Hansen Mike Maker Ramon Dominquez 10-1 15 Gemologist Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano 6-1 16 El Padrino Todd Pletcher Rafael Bejarano 20-1 17 Done Talking Hamilton Smith Sheldon Russell 50-1 18 Sabercat Steve Asmussen Corey Nakatani 30-1 19 I'll Have Another Doug O'Neill Mario Gutierrez 12-1 20 Liaison Bob Baffert Martin Garcia 50-1

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Just a short thought to get the word out quickly about anything in your neighborhood.
Share something with your neighbors. Write a new post... What's up? Make an announcement, speak your mind, or sell something
Buzlightyear aka marty May 22, 2013 at 01:54 pm
OH! the blog won't let links, link-up. Well in 3 minutes you can google, and find all of this.
Buzlightyear aka marty May 22, 2013 at 01:51 pm
Joan, let me presume you generally understand how the government works, what it can, and can't do,Read More and what freedom of the press really means. If so, theoretically, would you agree that if my post, is correct, would be very disturbing? Would you also agree that because of political leanings, most of the main stream media ignores, and/or twists the events I described to alter public opinion, and minimize it's impact? All of the statements in my original post are factual, out there in the public, in print, on T.V., and the internet. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/irs-official-in-charge-during-tea-party-targeting-now-runs-health-care-office/ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-30/fed-maintains-85-billion-pace-of-purchases-as-growth-pauses.html It is also called qe3 to infinity, If you want a deeper understanding of what lies ahead, then read this guy everyday. He has predicted, and laid out every move for years. http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/09/21/qe3-to-infinitythe-final-end-game/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2013/03/11/1-6-billion-rounds-of-ammo-for-homeland-security-its-time-for-a-national-conversation/ I believe the above group of links above is spells it out. Thanks for the challenge. ....
Joan Ochoa Sullivan May 22, 2013 at 10:14 am
Anyone can post a rant like this...if you can back up your statements with facts, then postRead More legitimate references.
Bill C. May 23, 2013 at 09:16 am
Why was my comment deleted. I saw it go up and then it came down. Are comments being censored hereRead More now? What I said was where I agree people who worked and volunteered last Saturday should not be attacked but thanked for their efforts, the city council and members of city government know the history of this parade and that their conduct was shameful in allowing it to slip to the wayside and not attacking the issuing early enough to assure it would continue. It would be nice to hear Tom Adams or home town grown Larry Spicer speak to this issue.
rubberband May 22, 2013 at 12:51 pm
Yep, B Ulm.... I was there all day. People were working really hard from early a.m. to clean upRead More time. I noticed plenty of smiles and laughter, some quick no-nonsense problem solving, and some really rather creative ways to tackle the project at hand. It was smaller scale, there was no carnival (Did the Tilt a Whirl with dried puke REALLY mean that much to you folks?!) Look, the pancakes tasty, kids cute, dunk booth busy. These people did their best, and this is coming from me, an admitted Mr.grumpy pants. Danielle, since you seem keen on helping out per your post, and would volunteer if you knew where to go to do so, please sign up to be the dunkee next year. We'd love to have ya...I might be old but I have one helluva fast ball.
B Ulm May 21, 2013 at 09:06 pm
Wow - what an insulting, non-constructive post. You live in a city whose citizens banded together toRead More tax themselves to save it Foothill wilderness, raised funds to renovate its schools and to build a state of the art library. The fact that one one single event in the year didn't go the way you wanted made you ashamed to be a Monrovian suggests you need to seriously rethink your priorities in life. As the first response said, quit complaining and get involved. Its not very hard in this city to find out how to volunteer if you had given it a slight effort. And the volunteer groups like the one that put the event together are starving for help since tearing people down is a lot more popular these days than putting in hard work. You are the one who should be ashamed.
rubberband May 20, 2013 at 07:38 am
Who was that face painter? She was really good with the kids, even the wiggly ones. She also wasRead More giving away little handmaid mermaids. Some of the stuff at the celebration was cool. I think next year the city council should be the dunkees for the dunk booth.
Mike Day May 17, 2013 at 09:56 pm
Thanks for the compliments. mor video to follow
Buzlightyear aka marty May 17, 2013 at 07:37 pm
Yeah, it's cute...... For now......
Ellen Zunino May 17, 2013 at 01:02 pm
Cool presentation. Many of us have had our own encounters and all of us have seen numerous photosRead More and videos so your creative approach freshened it up for us.
Dan Crandell May 16, 2013 at 09:28 pm
A California city will never prevail in a lawsuit against the STATE. All CA. cities must merge toRead More sue in mass under Federal RICO laws while we still have Federal laws. Filing alone at the State level is useless. Wake up people.